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Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2025 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9 - 10, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Yes

Implied probability

No

Implied probability

Liquidity

$4.3M

Total capital supporting the market

Resolution

Dec 10, 2025, 12:00 AM

Estimated closing window

Price trajectory

Candlestick-inspired line tracking the Yes contract probability over the selected interval. Hover to inspect inflection points or switch outcomes using the cards below.

1W Interval

Outcome breakdown

Track how each outcome's price, liquidity, and recent activity stack up. Figures are refreshed from the Polymarket order book on every poll.

OUT

Outcome 1

Last trade

Liquidity$4.3M
24h Volume$686.0K

Market health snapshot

Use these metrics to gauge depth, execution costs, and incentive structures before routing orders to the native exchange.

Best Bid

0.2%

Best Ask

0.3%

Spread

0.001

Last Trade

0.2%

Open Interest

Competitive Score

80.2%

1W Volume

$12.5M

1M Volume

$79.8M

Rewards

$200 / 3.50%

Market signals

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